Schools, embedded in an evolving world, are engaged in constant macro- and micro-level changes. In fact, change is the one constant in school teaching and administration. The so-called “school-improvement” plans are examples of applied change aimed at improving aspects of schooling. The school improvement plans are designed to be a linear development over time that achieves a goal that will improve education for students. In schools we see the expectation that the introduction of a new maths program will result in an improvement of students’ maths knowledge, skills and beliefs. However, this causal chain linearity is often disrupted by one or more uncontrolled variables that lurk in school culture, or within the external environments.
The Butterfly Effect
Edward Lorenz was a meteorology professor at MIT in the United States. In the early 1960s he was working on developing a method of predicting weather in the future, using 12 sets of variables, which were recorded to 6 decimal places. At this time computers were really slow, and Lorenz thought that he would simplify his work by reducing the numbers to 3 decimal places. While the computer was grinding away Lorenz went and made a coffee. When he came back, the highs and lows on the weather map (that looked like butterfly wings when close together) had completely changed. He was amazed that such a small change could result in such a change. Peter Dizikes (2011) writing for the MIT Technology Review stated: The unexpected result led Lorenz to a powerful insight about the way nature works: small changes can have large consequences. This idea came to be known as the ‘butterfly effect’ after Lorenz suggested that the flap of a butterfly’s wings in China might ultimately cause a tornado in Texas. Over time, and with external intervention, Lorenz’s meteorological butterfly wings metaphor has been subverted to something like: A butterfly flapping its wings over the Amazon can cause a tornado in Texas.”
The Nature of Change in Schools
While the practice and structure of schools, in general, have a stable, unchanging appearance, the context in which schools exist is sometimes changed rapidly and schools have to adapt to the unexpected. School finance, staffing, policies, and facilities are often the targets for such unexpected changes, which mean class structures and curriculum delivery can be compromised. In the development of school Risk Policies, it is fair to expect the unexpected, and the factors at play are: finance, buildings, political environment, industrial and HR considerations, and in the real world the levels of “uncertainty” need to be recognised. This is the situation where the “Butterfly Effect” has a place in modern school risk management planning.
Causal Chains
In a simplistic sense many School Improvement Plans are written with the belief that the input (a new program) will elicit a positive educational improvement (outcome). A causal chain is a useful concept to use when deconstructing the changes that take place in schools. Furthermore, the causal chain strategies are used in research in public health, economics, environmental studies, and development projects.
Causal chains are often invoked in classrooms, especially when teachers address a mistake or omission by a student: “Leroy, you remembered to take your homework home on the weekend, but basketball was too interesting, and the homework was not looked at.” Similarly, police investigating crimes are driven by the causal chains in their search for the truth. When invoked, the Butterfly Effect often forces its way into a causal chain and changes the direction of the sequencing.
At the school level, a professional learning exercise causal chain would look like:
Staff discussion> Professional learning> Put program into classrooms> Outcomes
Potential “Butterfly Effects”:
A simplistic causal change does not show possible uncontrolled variables and “acts of God”- staff tiredness, lack of support for staff, parents not informed and in agreement, conflict with other programs being introduced, illness (such as COVID 19), lack of financial support etc. The “Acts of God” interventions include flooding, lightning strikes, catastrophic traumas, and unexpected political interventions.
Planning for the Unexpected
A school staff’s inability to plan for the uncontrolled and unexpected change variables are problematic, especially when successful plans from a feted school are attempted to be grafted into a new school environment.
Butterfly Wing Flap 1
At Elementary School A, the number of students were falling as the suburb aged. It looked like the school would lose staff, but new suburbs were being developed south of Elementary School A, and the school buildings had not been completed. As a result, Elementary School A had a massive influx of migrant students who had moved into that area to be close to the newly built temple. So, the Butterfly Effects were facilitated by the nearby developments of a temple, and a planned school for that area not having been constructed. As a result, the Elementary School A had to reconfigure its operational plan and budget to accommodate the non-English speakers’ educational needs and recruit new staff members.
In this case, the school had existed in a context of radical change, and the staff and school board were used to mid-year changes of direction and re-allocation of budgets. The flapping of the butterfly wings were expected, but the where and when were the great unknowns.
Butterfly Wing Flap 2
When Elementary School B opened its doors in 2023, projections indicated an enrolment of approximately 200 students. This estimate formed the basis for key operational decisions, including staffing allocations, classroom structures, and the delivery of induction sessions to embed a consistent, evidence-informed teaching framework across the school. These foundational actions were designed to establish clarity and cohesion, ensuring that all staff were aligned in their approach to instruction and student expectations.
However, as the home suburb rapidly grew, the school’s enrolment swelled well beyond the initial projections by the end of Term One. What began as a carefully sequenced causal chain, that being projected enrolment, structured staffing, aligned professional learning, was unexpectedly disrupted. The “butterfly flaps” in this case were the unforeseen acceleration of housing developments and demographic shifts in the local area. This required the school to reconfigure its entire classroom structure, rapidly employ additional staff, and enhance internal systems to preserve consistency of practice amidst the rapid expansion. The outcome was both a challenge and an opportunity such as an intensified need for strategic coordination, but also a reaffirmation of the school’s commitment to instructional coherence and collaborative professionalism in the face of unpredictability.
Conclusion
As a starting point it is necessary in schools and classrooms to be aware that the “Butterfly Effect” is a player in school operations, because the Levels of Uncertainty and the uncontrolled variables in the school environment change constantly. In both of the vignettes the school staff had to live with varying degrees of uncertainty, so they were change adept. However, in schools with a long history of stasis the Butterfly Effect is worth examining. and preparing for, an unexpected flap of the butterfly wings that will change everything.